Author: Zack Fields

The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG or COG) has published excellent data on interjurisdictional traffic flows; this is probably the best data we have available.  COG data shows that nearly half the people who work in Fairfax live elsewhere and almost all of them live in jurisdictions to the west and south.  The trend is for folks living in Prince William to work in Fairfax and for folks living in Fairfax to work here or in the district.  In other words, exurbanites commute to the suburbs and suburbanites commute to the employment centers, which in this region include the District and the Dulles corridor, Tysons in particular.

Housing/land prices are the fundamental cause of this pattern. Housing is less and less expensive as one gets further from the urban core, because people are willing to pay more to commute less.  That's why a half acre lot near the beltway might cost a half million whereas the same lot in Jefferson County WVA might cost $10,000.  The fact is that 6% of new houses built in our county are affordable to families with the median income, about $94,000 (affordable defined as spending up to 30% of family income on housing).  This forces people to live further away, exacerbating traffic problems, which is why the Board has policies to encourage the creation of workforce and affordable housing.  Housing that is affordable for the average family is not in ample supply in Fairfax.  Yes if you have unlimited financial resources you find house in a matter of minutes; that doesn't mean there's not a housing crisis.

Finally, one cannot possibly know what the positives or negatives of a project are until one knows the details of the proposal. I thought we would have seen those details by now; I hope that they will be made available to all of us by the end of this week.  As you may know, Chairman Connolly has asked staff to examine how we can make the PPEA process more open, but until we can do that (and substantive  reform would require a change in state law), we are stuck with what the  General Assembly gives us.  That of course, does not eliminate the community-oriented land use planning processes that we have at a local level.

I hope this addresses the points in your letter.  Feel free to call me if you wish to discuss this further.

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